The next few weeks/months are going to be a roller coaster ride taking twists and turns many of us can hardly envision. The stock market is plummeting as are markets around the world on fears that the U.S. economy will fall into a recession following the recent weak jobs report. Many economists and Wall Street pros believe the Fed has waited too long to start cutting interest rates and the data seems to be bearing that out. It is now a near certainty the Fed will cut interest rates at their meeting in September, the only question is by how much and will it be too little too late.
In addition to this ongoing economic saga, we will find out who Vice President Harris has chosen as her running mate. I’m not sure the naming of a VP candidate has ever been so significant but in this race when the fate of democracy in America is on the line, it could have huge consequences. There is no doubt the roster of candidates Harris is entertaining is loaded with candidates who are far more qualified than the clueless J.D. Vance.
The odds makers are favoring Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania to be the front runner. The more I thought about it, the more this makes sense. Pennsylvania is a ‘must win’ state and Governor Shapiro is very popular there. In addition, Shapiro, in his position as governor, could help to ensure that any funny business the Republicans try to engage in by not certifying the votes in Pennsylvania gets nipped in the bud. It makes a lot of political sense.
There are two big questions. Firstly, what is the chemistry between Harris and Shapiro? And will she be comfortable having him as her number two? Secondly, and there is no politically correct way to put this – will the American electorate be comfortable having a Jewish man as VP and a heartbeat away from the presidency? It is a certainty the conservative media will have a field day emphasizing this. A woman of color and Jewish man as the Democratic ticket – the nightmare of the ‘white Christian nationalist movement’! It reminds of when John F. Kennedy ran for president, and some tried to make a big deal of the fact that he was Catholic.
My initial pick for Harris’ VP was Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona. I still really like Mark Kelly and think he would be an impressive running mate for Harris. However, there are some political realities that come into play. If Harris is going to be an effective president, she will have to have the support of Congress. The Democrats cannot afford to lose the Senate. If Kelly is tapped to be VP, there would be a special election for his seat in Arizona and there is some danger that the seat could fall to a Republican candidate. That could make a Harris administration less effective if the Republicans gain control of the Senate.
When Barak Obama was elected, Mitch McConnell stated publicly he would do everything in his power to ensure Obama was a one term president. He set up roadblock after roadblock for Obama including famously denying Obama the chance to name Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court. Harris certainly doesn’t want a repeat of that kind of administration so I’m sure she and her team are very cognizant of the importance of ensuring the Senate, and perhaps the House, end up controlled by Democrats. If it weren’t for that consideration, I think Mark Kelly would be a great pick to be VP.
As I stated at the outset, anyone who Harris picks will be far more qualified for the office than Vance. I am sure by now even Trump realizes Vance was a bad choice. The real question in my mind is will Vance remain on the ticket? It is a well-known fact that loyalty with Trump is a one-way street. I have no doubt if Trump could figure out a politically palatable way to boot Vance to the curb, he would do it. Will he? We shall see.
In the meantime, buckle up, it’s going to be a rough ride for the next few months.
