Trump has stated many of his policies are based upon what he believes is the increased threat from China. There is no doubt that China’s military power, economic power and presence around the globe is increasing. The irony in what Trump is doing, in my opinion, is the exact opposite of what he should be doing to counter the rise of the Chinese government. In fact, I believe his actions and policies will have the effect of actually accelerating China’s rise. The only way to truly counter China is to establish a strong network of alliances around the world – the very ones Trump is in the process of destroying.
For years, China has been investing heavily in various countries around the world. They have invested heavily in Africa and are making inroads in South America. Instead of trying to counter these moves, the Trump administration has slashed foreign aid, imposed tariffs on our allies, insulted our allies and taken a decidedly pro-Russia tack in foreign policy. The powers that be in China must be delighted because Trump is just making their job easier.
If I were advising the EU right now, I would tell them to seriously think about strengthening their economic, diplomatic, and perhaps even military ties with China. Trump seems hell bent on seriously damaging NATO or withdrawing from it altogether and realigning the United States with Russia. The EU knows it would be difficult to battle an aggressive Putin without assistance from the US, but they probably also realize they can no longer count on support from the US in the world of Trump. Why not realign with China? Those are words I never thought I would write but when your strongest, long-term ally turns on you, it is time to reassess your position in the world.
There are already train routes that run all the way from China to several places in Europe. The Chinese market could be huge for European companies and a way to counter the Trump tariffs designed to hurt businesses in Europe. Europe could also take advantage of China’s huge manufacturing expertise. It could be hugely beneficial to both the EU and China to ratify trade agreements not involving the United States. China would jump at the chance.
There are those who might argue that, given China’s history of human rights abuses and its dictatorial regime, that it would be dangerous and amoral to further strengthen ties between the EU and China. I would just say that given what is going in the United States under Trump, the USA is in no position to talk to any other country about human rights abuses so whether the EU aligns with the US or China is about the same right now.
The population of Europe is about 750 million. The population of China is about 1.4 billion. The world population is about 8.2 billion so between Europe and China, they have about one quarter of the population of the world. The population of Russia is about 145 million and the population of the United States is about 340 million for a combined total of 485 million or a quarter the size of the combined populations of China and Europe.
Since Trump seems to think he can bully all our current allies, I think its perhaps time for our allies to rethink what is in their long-term best interest. Perhaps it’s time for Europe to kick the US to the curb and disband NATO since that seems to be the direction Trump is headed anyway and form the Sino European Treaty Organization (SETO). The power of such an organization could certainly counter a United States/Russian pact. Perhaps then Trump might realize that insulting all our current allies and using aggressive bullying tactics was not really his best strategy – although he would never admit that.
This might sound far fetched but if I were the EU and being treated the way they are being treated by the United States and living under the threat of an aggressive Putin regime, I would give some serious thought to something like SETO. If Trump wants to play hardball, play hardball right back. It has become very clear the United States under Trump can no longer be trusted as an ally.
I suspect China would be much more comfortable in an alliance with Europe than with Russia. Vladimir Putin is not the most trustworthy person on the planet. (A fact that Trump will ultimately learn the hard way.) Ultimately, the more Trump tries to bully and insult our allies, the higher the probability they will just decide dealing with the United States is not worth the pain and look elsewhere for a more reliable trading partner and perhaps someone with whom they could have a military alliance to stem aggression from Russia.
The ancient Chinese game of ‘Go’ is based upon the whole premise of gaining ‘territory’ on a 19 by 19 square grid. Games of Go are generally longer and involve many more moves than a game of chess. Chess is a battle between two opposing sides where one side is hoping to checkmate the opposing king, but games often end in ties. Checkers is the game where players try to eliminate the opponent’s pieces by jumping over them and when a piece reaches the opposing side, it is reincarnated as a ‘king.’
In today’s world, the Chinese are playing Go. Russia is playing chess. And Donald Trump is playing checkers with the sole goal of eliminating opponents so he can shout – “King me!” It will prove to be a very short-sighted and costly approach to foreign policy. If I were the EU, I would seriously think about who will be the better partner in the long run. And China may very well be the answer – and we can all thank Trump for that!
