Sometimes I feel like Trump is actually trying to destroy America and its place as the lead superpower in the world. Given his continued fawning over Putin the last few years and his nebulous and secretive ties to Russia, it would not be much of a stretch for a conspiracy theorist to connect the dots in such a way that Trump is actually a Manchurian candidate for Russia where the target is not an individual but an entire system of government. Putin is devious enough and smart enough to concoct such a scheme and Trump is so easily manipulated by stroking his ego and filling his wallet that such a plot could actually exist. Clearly it would make a great movie and let’s hope its just a far-fetched ‘that could never happen’ idea. But just for fun, let’s play a little ‘what if’ game.
There is no doubt in anyone’s mind that China is the fast-rising new superpower in the world. The United States is still China’s largest trading partner, and the U.S. dollar is still the world’s de facto trade currency, but Chinese investment and influence are continuing to grow around the world. China has invested billions of dollars in Africa. There are rail lines connecting China and Europe. In fact, the China-Europe freight train network has expanded to 227 cities in 25 European countries and over 100 cities in 11 Asian countries. China has the world’s largest navy and also boasts the largest highspeed rail systems in the world. (How many high speed rail systems are there in the U.S. – zero!!) In addition, China also has a long-term strategic vision and plays the long game.
There is no doubt China is a formidable and growing adversary on the world stage. The United States knows this and so does Putin. Despite the outward friendliness between Presidents Xi and Putin, Putin is well aware of China’s growing dominance around the world. Given that China and Russia share a 2,500-mile border and China’s population of 1.4 billion dwarfs Russia’s population of 140 million, I imagine President Putin is well aware of China’s ability to dominate Russia in the future.
Right now, there are two major superpowers in the world, the United States and China and in third place there is Russia. All three have large arsenals of nuclear weapons but all three also know that starting a nuclear war is going to be a lose-lose situation for everyone. Perhaps Putin thought of another way to counter China’s emerging dominance.
In the business world, when corporations are feeling threatened by rising competitors, one of the strategies that is often employed is through mergers and acquisitions. Smaller or threatened companies merge or larger companies who feel threatened simply buy up smaller companies to be able to continue dominating their markets. One only has to look at the airline industry for prime examples of this.
So, let’s all put on our conspiracy hats. If I were Putin and viewing the world through a transactional business perspective, I would look at the world and realize two things – 1) no one will win a nuclear war and 2) it is far easier to create chaos and influence in the United States than in China. Consequently, a “merger” or realignment of alliances between the United States and Russia would seem to be the best option to counter the rising influence of China. China is a rising power. The United States is in a constant state of chaos and an easy target. The thing that makes the most strategic sense to Russia is to work to create a divide between the United States and NATO with the ultimate goal of entering into some kind of mutually beneficial alliance between Russia and the United States. And, despite how conspiratorial this all sounds, it certainly seems to be what is happening right before our eyes.
Unfortunately, as long as Trump can get his ego stroked and pad his various piggy banks, he won’t really care about such mundane things like democracy and the U.S. Constitution. The Christian nationalists won’t object because they resonate with Putin’s stance on ‘woke’ issues. China won’t stand in the way because they are confident that their long-term strategy will ultimately prevail, and they are very patient. Additionally, China knows that the effort required to forge any kind of alliance between Russian and the United States will weaken them both so China will emerge stronger without having to do anything. I know, it all sounds very fanciful.
I guess we can wait for Hollywood to make the movie. The casting would be interesting. Putin: a wily, astute, killer. Trump: a narcissistic, bloviating idiot. Xi: a wise, patient, ruthless, strategist. Or we can just watch the reality show as it unfolds. Pop some corn and settle in on the sofa!
